Sales forecasting
Quantitative techniques to estimate future sales using a range of forecasting techniques
Forecasting allows for smoother cash-flow management, inventory & production, financing
Benefits
Provides valuable information for a business about the trend of sales and what to expect in terms of revenue
Lets a business use quantitative data (past sales) and qualitative data (impending changes) to assess the future of the company’s sales and success
Limitations
No one can predict the future
Using different methods, businesses will end up with different scenarios and different trends
May confuse the business on what strategy to use
Methods of forecasting
Four part moving average sales trends
In order to remove the variations produced by seasons, trade cycles and other variations, and moving average is used to make data smoother
Given a set of actual sales, you take the average of four points of data (eg. 4 values of revenue/month) and average them, moving left-right
Corresponds with how sales are usually reported which is quarterly
More difficult than 3 part moving average (only 3 points are used)
Time series analysis
Predicts future sales by identifying underlying trend line
Seasonal fluctuations
Seasonal variations in demand
e.g. pre-Christmas season is capitalized in the USA through the Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales
Random fluctuations
Unpredictable fluctuations in sales
Cyclical fluctuations
Variations linked to economic cycle of booms and slumps
Response
Deliberate actions taken to affect sales (e.g. Sales promotion)
Extrapolation
Plotting historical data and extending the trent to project future sales
Simple but not very accurate
Delphi technique
Using a panel of independent experts
Experts go through a sequence of questionnaires, each of which builds on previous ones, lasting throughout several rounds
A facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons for their judgments
Market research
Identify trends and external changes that can impact sales and combine with statistical data
Kim De Leon 4.3. Sales Forecasting (HL Only) 10.04.2015
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_window.obApi.marketerId = toArray(_window.obApi.marketerId).concat(toArray(OB_ADV_ID)); return; } var api = _window.obApi = function() { api.dispatch ? api.dispatch.apply(api, arguments) : api.queue.push(arguments); }; api.version = '1.1'; api.loaded = true; api.marketerId = OB_ADV_ID; api.queue = []; var tag = _document.createElement('script'); tag.async = true; tag.src = '//amplify.outbrain.com/cp/obtp.js'; tag.type = 'text/javascript'; var script = _document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; script.parentNode.insertBefore(tag, script); }(window, document);`}init(e){}onPixelEvent(e,t){const n=this.selectPixelEvents(e,t);n&&n.forEach((e=>{e&&window.obApi("track",e.event)}))}isLoaded(e){return!!window.obApi}}Outbrain.scriptInjected=!1;class Revcontent extends Provider{getScript(){return"var script=document.createElement('script');script.src='https://assets.revcontent.com/master/rev.js';document.head.appendChild(script);"}init(e){}onPixelEvent(e,t){const n=this.selectPixelEvents(e,t);n&&n.forEach((e=>{e&&window.rev("event",e.event)}))}isLoaded(e){return!!window.rev}}Revcontent.scriptInjected=!1;class Taboola extends Provider{getScript(){return`window._tfa = window._tfa || [];!function (t, f, a, x) {if (!document.getElementById(x)) {t.async = 1;t.src = a;t.id=x;f.parentNode.insertBefore(t, f);}}(document.createElement('script'),document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0],'//cdn.taboola.com/libtrc/unip/${this.keys[0]}/tfa.js','tb_tfa_script');`}init(e){}onPixelEvent(e,t){const n=this.selectPixelEvents(e,t);n&&n.forEach((e=>{if(e){const n=parseInt(t,10);window._tfa.push({notify:"event",name:e.event,id:n})}}))}isLoaded(e){return Array.isArray(window._tfa)}}Taboola.scriptInjected=!1;class Tiktok extends Provider{getScript(){return'!function (w, d, t) {w.TiktokAnalyticsObject=t;var ttq=w[t]=w[t]||[];ttq.methods=["page","track","identify","instances","debug","on","off","once","ready","alias","group","enableCookie","disableCookie"],ttq.setAndDefer=function(t,e){t[e]=function(){t.push([e].concat(Array.prototype.slice.call(arguments,0)))}};for(var i=0;i{e&&window.ttq.instance(t).track(e.event)}))}isLoaded(){return!!window.ttq}}Tiktok.scriptInjected=!1;class GoogleAds extends Provider{getScript(){return`var s=document.createElement('script');s.async=1;s.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=${this.keys[0]}';document.head.appendChild(s);window.dataLayer=window.dataLayer||[];function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments)}gtag('set','allow_ad_personalization_signals',false);gtag('js',new Date);`}init(e){window.gtag&&window.gtag("config",e)}onPixelEvent(e,t){const n=this.selectPixelEvents(e,t);n&&n.forEach((e=>{e&&window.gtag("event","conversion",{send_to:`${t}/${e.event}`})}))}isLoaded(e){return!!window.gtag}}GoogleAds.scriptInjected=!1;const ADS_PARAM$1=CAFKey,MESSAGE_PREFIX="FSXDC,.aCS:",ALLOWED_ORIGINS=["https://www.google.com","https://www.adsensecustomsearchads.com","https://syndicatedsearch.goog","https://googleadservices.com"];class Pixels{static build(e){const t=unpackPHPArrayObject(e,"pixel_tracking_data");if(t)return t.useAltTikTokEventsForAdsPlatformUser=e.is_ads,new Pixels(t)}constructor(e){this.onPixelEvent=e=>{const{detail:{type:t}}=e;switch(t){case"visit":case"ctr":case"click":this.providers.forEach((e=>e.handlePixelEvent(t)))}},this.providers=[],e.facebook&&Object.keys(e.facebook).forEach((t=>{this.providers.push(new Facebook({[t]:e.facebook[t]}))})),e.tiktok&&Object.keys(e.tiktok).forEach((t=>{this.providers.push(new Tiktok({[t]:e.tiktok[t]}))})),e.taboola&&Object.keys(e.taboola).forEach((t=>{this.providers.push(new Taboola({[t]:e.taboola[t]}))})),e.revcontent&&Object.keys(e.revcontent).forEach((t=>{this.providers.push(new Revcontent({[t]:e.revcontent[t]}))})),e.outbrain&&this.providers.push(new Outbrain(e.outbrain)),e.googleads&&Object.keys(e.googleads).forEach((t=>{this.providers.push(new GoogleAds({[t]:e.googleads[t]}))}))}listenForEvents(){document.addEventListener("pixel",(e=>{this.onPixelEvent(e)}));window.onmessage=e=>{const{origin:t,data:n}=e;ALLOWED_ORIGINS.includes(t)&&"string"==typeof n&&(null==n?void 0:n.startsWith(MESSAGE_PREFIX))&&new URLSearchParams(window.location.search).has(ADS_PARAM$1)&&document.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("pixel",{detail:{type:"click"}}))}}listenForPixelEvents(){document.addEventListener("pixel",(e=>{this.onPixelEvent(e)}))}dispatchEvent(e){document.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("pixel",{detail:e}))}}var State;!function(e){e[e.Pending=0]="Pending",e[e.Loaded=1]="Loaded",e[e.Failure=2]="Failure",e[e.TimedOut=3]="TimedOut",e[e.Errored=4]="Errored"}(State||(State={}));const CAF_SCRIPT_SRC=`https://www.google.com/adsense/domains/caf.js?${GOOGLE_MV3_URL_PARAMS}`,TIMEOUT_SCRIPTS=Number(GOOGLE_CAF_TIMEOUT_SCRIPTS),TIMEOUT_CALLBACKS=Number(GOOGLE_CAF_TIMEOUT_CALLBACKS);class StateMachine{constructor(){this.state=State.Pending}transitionTo(e){this.state=e}transitionFromPendingTo(e){this.done||(this.state=e)}get loaded(){return this.state===State.Loaded}get timedOut(){return this.state===State.TimedOut}get done(){return this.state!==State.Pending}}class Ads{constructor(e,t){this.state={script:new StateMachine,blocks:new StateMachine},this.blocksLoaded=[],this.injectScriptTags=()=>__awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){return new Promise((e=>{const t=document.createElement("script");t.type="text/javascript",t.src=CAF_SCRIPT_SRC,t.addEventListener("load",(()=>e(!0))),t.addEventListener("error",(()=>e(!1))),document.body.appendChild(t),TIMEOUT_SCRIPTS>0&&setTimeout((()=>e(!1)),TIMEOUT_SCRIPTS)}))})),this.onPageLoaded=(e,t)=>{if(this.pageLoaded={requestAccepted:e,status:t},this.state.script.done)return;const n=null==t?void 0:t.error_code;n?(this.state.script.transitionTo(State.Failure),this.failureReason=`caf_pageloaderror_${n}`):this.state.script.transitionTo(State.Loaded)},this.onBlockLoaded=(e,t,n,i)=>{this.blocksLoaded.push({containerName:e,adsLoaded:t,isExperimentVariant:n,callbackOptions:i}),this.state.blocks.done||(t?this.state.blocks.transitionTo(State.Loaded):this.blocksLoaded.length>=this.blocks.length&&(this.state.blocks.transitionTo(State.Failure),this.failureReason=`caf_adloadfail_${e}`))},this.onTimeout=()=>{this.state.script.transitionFromPendingTo(State.TimedOut),this.state.blocks.transitionFromPendingTo(State.TimedOut)},this.blocks=e,this.options=t}get loaded(){return this.state.script.loaded&&!this.blocksLoaded.map((e=>e.adsLoaded)).includes(!1)}waitForBlocks(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){return new Promise((e=>{const t=()=>{const n=performance.now();if(this.state.blocks.done)return this.cafLoadTime=Math.round(n-this.cafStartTime),void e();const i=this.blocksLoaded.map((e=>e.adsLoaded));i.includes(!1)||i.length>=this.blocks.length?e():setTimeout(t,50)};t()}))}))}inject(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){try{const e=yield this.injectScriptTags();return this.cafStartTime=performance.now(),e&&void 0!==window.google?(new window.google.ads.domains.Caf(Object.assign(Object.assign({},this.options),{pageLoadedCallback:this.onPageLoaded,adLoadedCallback:this.onBlockLoaded}),...this.blocks),TIMEOUT_CALLBACKS>0&&setTimeout(this.onTimeout,TIMEOUT_CALLBACKS),yield new Promise((e=>{const t=()=>{this.state.script.done?e():setTimeout(t,10)};t()}))):void this.state.script.transitionTo(State.Failure)}catch(e){return void(this.error=e.toString())}}))}toCallbacks(){return{adLoadedCallback:this.blocksLoaded.slice(-1)[0],pageLoadedCallback:this.pageLoaded,cafTimedOut:this.state.script.timedOut||this.state.blocks.timedOut,cafLoadedMs:this.cafLoadTime,googleAdsFailure:!!this.failureReason}}toContext(){const e={cafScriptWasLoaded:this.state.script.loaded,cafScriptLoadTime:this.cafLoadTime,callbacks:this.toCallbacks};return this.error&&(e.js_error={message:this.error}),this.state.script.loaded||(e.zeroclick={reason:"googleAdsFailure"}),e}mockFailedState(){this.state.blocks.transitionTo(State.Failure),this.state.script.transitionTo(State.Failure)}}class TagManager{constructor(e){this.injected=!1,this.identifier=e}inject(){if(this.injected)return;if(!this.identifier)return;if("TEST"===this.identifier)return;const e=document.createElement("script");e.setAttribute("src",`https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=${this.identifier}`),document.head.appendChild(e),this.track(),this.injected=!0}track(){this.push("js",new Date),this.push("config",this.identifier)}push(e,t){window.dataLayer||(window.dataLayer=[]),window.dataLayer.push(arguments)}}const ADS_PARAM=CAFKey,ADS_TRACKING_URL="_tr",BLOCKS_TYPE="ads",BLOCKS_CONTAINER="rs",KNOWN_CAF_PARAMS=["caf","query","afdToken","pcsa","nb","nm","nx","ny","is","clkt"];class Google{static build({pageOptions:e,preferredLanguage:t,blocks:n,googleAnalytics:i},s,a,o){let r={};e&&(r=Object.assign({},e),r.hl||(r.hl=t));let d=null==e?void 0:e.resultsPageBaseUrl;d||(d=window.location.origin);return new Google(s.uuid,n,r,i,d,o)}constructor(e,t,n,i,s,a){this._blocks=t,this._pageOptions=n,this.uuid=e,this._baseURL=new URL(s),this._signature=a,this.ads=new Ads(this.blocks,this.pageOptions),this.tagManager=new TagManager(i)}injectTagManager(){this.tagManager.inject()}injectAds(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){yield this.ads.inject()}))}waitForBlocks(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){return this.ads.waitForBlocks()}))}get blocks(){return(this._blocks||[]).filter((e=>this.wantsToServeAds?e.type===BLOCKS_TYPE:e.container===BLOCKS_CONTAINER)).map((e=>{const t=this.baseURL;new URLSearchParams(window.location.search).forEach(((e,n)=>{t.searchParams.has(n)||t.searchParams.append(n,e)}));const n=Object.assign({},e);if(n.resultsPageBaseUrl=t.toString(),this.wantsToServeAds){const e=new URLSearchParams;e.append("click","true"),e.append("session",this.uuid);const t=Object.assign({},this._signature);delete t.ad_loaded_callback,delete t.caf_loaded_ms,delete t.caf_timed_out,delete t.flex_rule,delete t.frame,delete t.js_error,delete t.no_ads_redirect,delete t.page_headers,delete t.page_request,delete t.page_loaded_callback,delete t.popup,delete t.screen_resolution,delete t.user_has_ad_blocker,delete t.user_preference,delete t.user_supports_darkmode,delete t.user_using_darkmode,delete t.zeroclick,e.append("signature",encode(t)),n.clicktrackUrl=`${TRACKING_DOMAIN}${ADS_TRACKING_URL}?${e.toString()}`}return n}))}get baseURL(){const e=new URL(this._baseURL.origin);return e.searchParams.append(ADS_PARAM,"1"),this._baseURL.searchParams.forEach(((t,n)=>{e.searchParams.append(n,t)})),e}get pageOptions(){const e=Object.assign({},this._pageOptions);return Object.keys(this._pageOptions).forEach((t=>{t.startsWith("bodis")&&delete e[t]})),e}get cannotLoadAds(){return!this.ads.loaded}get wantsToServeAds(){return new URLSearchParams(window.location.search).has(ADS_PARAM)}get adsMode(){return this.ads.loaded&&this.wantsToServeAds}get adsReady(){return this.wantsToServeAds&&!this.cannotLoadAds}get noAdsRedirectUrl(){const e=new URLSearchParams(window.location.search);return KNOWN_CAF_PARAMS.forEach((t=>e.delete(t))),`${window.location.origin}?${e.toString()}`}get callbacks(){return this.ads.toCallbacks()}toContext(){return Object.assign({blocks:this.blocks,pageOptions:this.pageOptions},this.ads.toContext())}}class CookieConsentManager{constructor(){this.injectScriptTag=()=>__awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){return new Promise((e=>{const t=document.createElement("script");t.setAttribute("src",COOKIE_CONSENT_JS_URL),t.addEventListener("load",(()=>this.awaitConsent(e))),t.addEventListener("error",(()=>e(!1))),document.head.appendChild(t)}))}))}inject(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){this.injected||!COOKIE_CONSENT_JS_URL||isLocal()||(this.injected=yield this.injectScriptTag())}))}awaitConsent(e){let t=0;const n=setInterval((()=>{t+=1,20===t&&(clearInterval(n),e(!0)),void 0!==window.__tcfapi&&(window.addEventListener("ConsentActivity",(t=>{const{detail:{status:n}}=t;n&&e(!0)})),clearInterval(n))}),50)}}class Cheq{constructor(e){let t;if(t="string"==typeof e?parseInt(e,10):e,t<0||t>100)throw new Error("Load percentage must be between 0 and 100");this.loadPercentage=t}inject(e,t){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){if(this.injected)return;100*Math.random()<=this.loadPercentage&&(this.injected=this.injectScriptTag(e,t))}))}injectScriptTag(e,t){const n=document.createElement("script");return n.type="text/javascript",n.async=!0,n.setAttribute("src","https://ob.forseasky.com/i/148870ae21863d775c347e8893c985af.js"),n.setAttribute("data-ch","cheq4ppc"),n.setAttribute("data-uvid",e),n.setAttribute("data-utm-campaign",t.toString()),n.className="ct_clicktrue_73521",document.head.appendChild(n),!0}}class App{main(){var e,t,n;return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){if(this.parkResponse=decode(),this.findDomainResponse=yield getFindDomain(),!this.findDomainResponse)throw new Error("Domain failed to load.");this.pixels=Pixels.build(this.findDomainResponse),null===(e=this.pixels)||void 0===e||e.listenForEvents(),this.adblock=new Adblock,yield this.adblock.inject(),this.google=Google.build(this.findDomainResponse,this.parkResponse,this.adblock,buildSignature({context:this.context,callbacks:null===(t=this.google)||void 0===t?void 0:t.callbacks},"click")),this.google.injectTagManager();const i=Parking.build(this.findDomainResponse,this.google);Render.prerender(i);const s=(null===(n=this.findDomainResponse)||void 0===n?void 0:n.referral)?AFD_REFERRAL_CHEQ_LOAD_PERCENTAGE:AFD_ORGANIC_CHEQ_LOAD_PERCENTAGE;this.cheq=new Cheq(s),this.cheq.inject(this.parkResponse.uuid,this.findDomainResponse.userId),this.cookieConsentManager=new CookieConsentManager,yield this.cookieConsentManager.inject();let a=Failed.cannotPark(this.findDomainResponse);if(a)return void(yield this.transitionToFailed(a,i));yield this.google.injectAds();let o=Disabled.build(this.findDomainResponse,this.adblock.state);if(o)return void(yield this.transitionToDisabled(o,i));const r=this.adblock.hasAdblocker();r&&this.adblock.handleAdblocked();const d=Sales.build(this.findDomainResponse);if(d)return void(yield this.transitionToSales(d));this.eligibleForZeroClick&&(this.zeroClickResponse=yield getZeroClick(this.context));const c=Redirect.build(this.findDomainResponse,this.zeroClickResponse,this.google);if(c)yield this.transitionToRedirect(c);else{if(r)return o=Disabled.build(this.findDomainResponse,this.adblock.state),void(yield this.transitionToDisabled(o,i));a=Failed.noSponsors(this.google),a?yield this.transitionToFailed(a,i):yield this.transitionToParking(i)}}))}transitionToParking(e){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){this.state=e,Render.template(e),Render.revealPage(),yield this.google.waitForBlocks(),yield this.track()}))}transitionToRedirect(e){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){this.state=e;const t=this.track();Render.revealPage(),yield waiter(e.delay,(e=>Render.loading(e))),yield t,window.location.href=e.url,log(`âž¡ Redirecting [${e.url}]`)}))}transitionToFailed(e,t){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){this.state=e,Render.message(e.message),Render.injectJS(t.javascript),Render.revealPage(),yield this.track()}))}transitionToSales(e){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){this.state=e,e.init(this.context),yield this.track()}))}transitionToDisabled(e,t){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){this.state=e,Render.message(e.message),Render.injectJS(t.javascript),"adblocker"===e.reason&&t.bannerAdblockerOnly&&Render.revealSalesBanner(),Render.revealPage(),yield this.track()}))}track(){var e;return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){if(!this.state.track)return Promise.resolve();try{const t=this.state.trackingType;return null===(e=this.pixels)||void 0===e||e.dispatchEvent({type:t}),trackVisit({context:this.context,callbacks:this.google.callbacks},t)}catch(e){return}}))}get eligibleForZeroClick(){const{cannotPark:e,canZeroClick:t,zeroClick:n}=this.findDomainResponse,{cannotLoadAds:i,wantsToServeAds:s}=this.google;return this.adblock.state!==Blocking.BLOCKED&&(!!t&&(!!e||(!(!i||s)||!!(null==n?void 0:n.reason))))}get context(){var e,t,n,i;const s=this.findDomainResponse,a=this.parkResponse,o=null===(e=this.state)||void 0===e?void 0:e.toContext(),r=null===(t=this.adblock)||void 0===t?void 0:t.toContext(),d=null===(n=this.google)||void 0===n?void 0:n.toContext(),c=browserState(),l=Object.assign(Object.assign({},null===(i=this.findDomainResponse)||void 0===i?void 0:i.zeroClick),this.zeroClickResponse);return Object.assign(Object.assign(Object.assign(Object.assign(Object.assign(Object.assign(Object.assign({app_version:APP_VERSION},s),a),r),d),o),c),{zeroClick:l})}init(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){try{window.__parkour=this,yield this.main()}catch(e){console.error("app",e);const t=Failed.fromError(e);this.state=t,Render.message(t.message),Render.revealPage()}}))}}(new App).init(),exports.App=App}));
